Vancouver Island unlikely to experience extreme flooding and wildfires

As we head into a particularly hot weekend, the province is warning people throughout BC to be cautious as the risks of floods and wildfires rise.

According to Bruce Ralston, Minister of Forests, drought conditions throughout BC have worsened, leading to “more advanced fire behaviour than what is typical at this time of year.”

Thankfully for those of us in the southern region of Vancouver Island, the risk is much lower. While temperatures are expected to soar this weekend, hitting 28C Sunday and Monday in Victoria, it’s unlikely that we’ll see the more extreme effects of this weather.

David Atkinson, a professor of geography, focusing on climate, at UVic, said fires are usually stopped quickly on the Island, since “there’s a fair amount of infrastructure not too far away,” whereas remote fires on the mainland can go undetected longer. If wildfires do start on the Island, Atkinson said that they “are going to be human caused.”

“It’s not likely to be warm enough really to get a whole lot of thunderstorm activity—maybe in the interior, but not on the Island,” said Atkinson.

Flooding risks are also less significant on the Island than the mainland. Atkinson points to our smaller watersheds, saying they “aren’t really big enough,” unlike the larger watersheds on the mainland that have a higher chance of floods spilling over. Atkinson said that melting snowpacks could potentially be a flooding issue for those north of Port Alberni, but it’s unlikely the rest of the Island will see the same rising water levels as areas like the Okanagan.

The bigger risk to Islanders will be the potential of smoke—if pressure changes cause the wind to move toward the west, instead of the usual eastern-directed winds, we’ll have to deal with this byproduct of the mainland fires. This could negatively affect air quality in the region, though it could also keep the temperatures low.

Atkinson said that while this weekend is unusually hot for May, temperatures will not reach those of 2021’s heat dome, when the extreme heat killed 55 people on the Island. However, the province points out that the risk of heat stroke and dehydration will still be present throughout BC, encouraging people to make a plan for this weekend’s weather.

According to Environment Canada’s projected forecasts, these higher than normal temperatures should ease as the summer progresses.

“May, June, July there’s a high probability that it’ll be above normal [temperatures] and even higher in areas like the northern interior—almost a 100% chance,” said Atkinson. “But if we look at later in the summer, it starts to weaken.”

As we enter August and September, Environment Canada is predicting a very low chance that we will be above normal temperatures.

“So what we could end up with is an early, big start like we’re already seeing but it’s likely that the summer won’t continue to warm [beyond average temperatures] past July,” Atkinson said.