Report: BC will not hit its climate targets by 2030

The province will only achieve half of what it committed to, reducing BC’s carbon emissions by 20% between 2007 and 2030 instead of the promised 40%, according to a report released by the province on Tue.

Emissions even increased in some areas, with transportation emissions going up by 18% between 2007 and 2022.

The province is legally required to release updates of its progress in fighting climate change through the Climate Change Accountability Act. Tue..’s report was meant to come out last fall, but was delayed due to October’s provincial election.

Energy Minister Adrian Dix said progress has been “substantial” but has “not been enough to be on track.” He said the province will continue to work toward lowering emissions, while “ensuring people have more affordable and sustainable options available to them.”

Critics of the report commended its transparency, but say it lacks a clear plan to improve emissions reductions.

Sarah Korpan, government relations at EcoJustice, said in a release that “admitting to the problem is not the same as addressing it.”

Korpan said the province “continues to use economic and affordability arguments as an excuse to weaken our climate ambition,” but that the affordability crisis is linked to climate inaction.

“Extreme weather events worsen the cost-of-living crisis: in 2021 alone, extreme weather events cost the province between $10 and $17 billion, and many communities are still struggling to recover from the economic loss linked to these disasters,” Korpan said.

BC Green Interim Leader Jeremy Valeriote said the BC NDP doesn’t appear to have a plan to fix missing its own targets.

“Climate change is the quiet crisis—we care about it during floods and wildfires, heat domes and heat waves, but when the moment passes, this government lags behind, and our communities remain vulnerable to climate inaction,” Valeriote said.

Unique challenges on the Island

The disappointing progress from the province matches the struggle many municipalities are facing to hit their own targets. Recently, Saanich confirmed it was not on track to reach its 2030 goal. As the municipality grows rapidly, emissions have only been reduced by 1.2% in the last year.

The municipality had aimed to reduce emissions by 50% between 2007 and 2025, cutting this further by 2030. But emissions have only decreased by 19%. Saanich’s sustainability director argues this number is closer to 28%, given the massive growth experienced by the district since 2007.

Last fall, at the Vancouver Island Economic Alliance Summit, energy expert Barry Penner said that only 17% of total energy consumption on the Island comes from electricity, with the other 83% coming primarily from different forms of fossil fuels. As communities continue to grow throughout the Island, energy demands grow with them, making it harder to fast-track low-emission options.

The CRD’s most recent climate projection study shows heat waves will become eight times more frequent and four degrees hotter by the 2050s, and 15 times more frequent by the 2080s.

What BC’s done right

It’s not all bad news, though. Emissions per person were down by 21.6% in 2022, compared with 2007, making this stat on track to hit the 2030 target of 40%. Emissions intensity per unit of GDP fell by 30.5% since 2007.

Over the last year, heat pumps exceeded furnace sales for the first time, and zero-emission vehicles are becoming increasingly popular. In 2023, these cars made up one–quarter of new light-duty vehicle sales, which is a 25% increase from the year before.

Since 2014, methane emissions in the province’s oil and gas sector have dropped by 43%.