Electoral tradition is not a crystal ball for election outcomes in the CRD

Shake-ups in the electoral map and a slew of political departures mark next Saturday’s provincial election which may bring some surprises in previously predictable districts.

The upheaval caused by BC United’s surprise fold into the Conservative Party make this a more difficult election to predict across the CRD. However, in ridings where incumbents are running and where names and boundaries remain familiar, it becomes a little easier—not certain but easier. Surprises may come where new and returning candidates believe they can rely on voter party allegiance and in new districts where new boundaries bring those allegiances into new districts.

Three districts in the CRD have undergone name changes and their boundaries have been altered: Langford-Highlands created out of Langford-Juan de Fuca and a small portion of Esquimalt-Metchosin; Juan de Fuca-Malahat which includes Sooke, parts of Cowichan Valley and Esquimalt-Metchosin; and Esquimalt-Colwood which includes Esquimalt, Colwood, Vic West, and View Royal. That last one was created out of parts of Esquimalt-Metchosin and Victoria-Beacon Hill.

According to results of a recent Leger poll, 80% of decided voters said they are not likely to change their minds in this election, while 14% said it’s likely they will.

The poll indicates Conservative supporters are more entrenched in their choice than those who back the NDP.  But when a new candidate appears in old strongholds, it’s not always clear who the winner will be.

Green candidate Rob Botterell has stepped up after Green Adam Olsen, the MLA for Saanich North and the Islands, announced he would not run in this election after serving since 2017. Olsen won the last election handily with 52% of the vote. His legacy is something Botterell can leverage.

The NDP says so long to old guard ...

Many high-profile NDP cabinet ministers—including Rob Fleming (Victoria-Swan Lake), Murray Rankin (Oak Bay-Gordon Head), and Mitzi Dean (Esquimalt-Metchosin)—also stepped away from the 2024 race when the campaign kicked off in September.

Rankin’s Oak Bay-Gordon Head district has had a veritable dog’s breakfast of representation since 1979.

... And hello to the new

Fleming, the former transportation minister, vacated Victoria-Swan Lake where he served as MLA from 2009 to 2024, leaving the door open for political newcomer Nina Krieger, former executive director of the Vancouver Holocaust Education Centre.

Unlike Fleming whose residency in the riding lasted decades, Krieger has lived in Victoria for three years and still commutes regularly to Vancouver.

Despite her relative newness to the region, Krieger has the advantage of long-standing NDP support there. Since 2009, the NDP's electoral share of that riding hasn’t dipped below 53%. Fleming won it in the last election with 59% voting for him. Green candidate Annamieke Holtuis took only 28% of that share.

The current Victoria-Swan Lake Green candidate is Chistina Winter, a long-time resident of Saanich, Green party member for nine years, and party canvasser in the district since 2015.

The NDP has what are usually incumbency advantages in other ridings.

Juan de Fuca—one of six new districts created out of parts of Langford-Juan de Fuca, Cowichan Valley, and Esquimalt—is also a traditional NDP stronghold. Former premier John Horgan’s riding was Langford-Juan de Fuca. But that could change in a race where two of three candidates have considerable stakes and roots in the community.

Dana Lajeunesse, a third-generation resident of Sooke, only joined the NDP last year but has served as a Sooke councillor since 2019.

Entrepreneur David Evans, former owner of the Stick in the Mud coffee house and current owner of The Stick's Roastoreum also has deep roots in the community and a strong connection to T’Souke Nation. The freshman Green candidate may have the advantage of party leader Sonia Furstenau’s legacy in Cowichan, given that a portion of her old district was integrated into his.

The overwhelming favourite in Langford-Highlands is current MLA (2023) Ravi Parmar. Another incumbent, New Democrat Grace Lore, has her work cut out in Victoria-Beacon Hill—even though she’s represented the riding for the last four years. She’ll have to defeat Furstenau who has returned to Victoria where she was raised.

The Furstenau factor

The sole elected leader of a BC party, Furstenau has served as the Cowichan Valley MLA since 2017. As party leader, she has media visibility Lore can’t bank on, and many pundits declared her the winner of Tuesday’s (Oct. 8) televised leaders debate. Fairview Strategy’s Kareen Allam told CBC’s Stephen Quinn: “She spoke with a tremendous amount of conviction and principle and was extremely authentic in her delivery.”

Cammy Lockwood, a farmer who has lived in the Cowichan Valley since the age of two, is looking to be Furstenau’s successor.

Apart from a brief stint under Liberal Jeff Bray, Victoria-Beacon Hill has been in the hands of the NDP since 1991. Lore easily won the riding in 2020, pulling in 54% of the vote. Green candidate, Jenn Neilson garnered 29% four years ago.

More seats up for grabs

A minimum of 47 seats will be needed to form a majority government in this election with the legislature expanding to 93 seats from 87. Undecided voters will play a significant role in swing districts in the election. Leger polling from Oct 7 had the NDP ahead of the Conservatives by five percentage points, placing a heavy importance on what undecided voters do. Furstenau has appealed to them to support the Greens in order to keep both the NDP and Conservatives from forming a majority government.