The data is in! Our comprehensive breakdown of the 2020 election results

One week after the election we now have a much better picture of precisely how Vancouver Island voted, how it compared to prior elections and what BC parties spent on a campaign that, all things considered, was one of the cheapest in modern history. Below, the most comprehensive breakdown around of how this election played out in both BC and Vancouver Island.

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Graphic by Tristan Pratt

We already knew that Vancouver Island's 2020 election map resembled a carrot, but here we altered the colour shading to show just how strongly the winners were able to claim each riding. Close races like Parksville-Qualicum carry only a whiff of orange, while John Horgan's Langford-Juan de Fuca riding is the colour of sunset.

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How the election played out on Google Search

AugSep0305070911131517192123252729Oct0305070911131517190%20%40%60%80%100%

NDP

BC Green Party

BC Liberals

NDP

BC Liberals

BC Green Party

Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term.

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This was an election that was largely fought online, and it turns out the Google search results could have predicted who was going to win well in advance of Election Day. The BC NDP was consistently winning the Google race, the BC Green Party seems to have gotten way more attention online than in the polls, and it's entirely possible that BC Liberal supporters aren't as online as the other parties.

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The state of party coffers heading into the election

1m

5m

9m

BC NDP

8.43m

BC Liberal Party

6.26m

BC Green Party

1.61m

Data is based on interim financial reports

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By calling a snap election in the middle of a pandemic, BC NDP leader John Horgan benefited from an incumbent advantage that has been increasingly evident in pandemic elections held around the world. He also knew that his party had much more money than his competitors. On the day the election was called, the NDP had piled more in its coffers than both of its main opponents combined.

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Amount spent on Facebook ads

0

20k

40k

60k

80k

100k

120k

140k

160k

180k

200k

220k

240k

260k

280k

300k

320k

340k

360k

380k

400k

420k

440k

460k

480k

500k

520k

BC Liberals

532k

BC NDP

332k

BC Green Party

45.2k

how much advertisers are spending on ads about social issues, elections or politics across Facebook apps and services.

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And this is where some of that money ended up. If you seemed to see more of Andrew Wilkinson than John Horgan on your Facebook feed throughout October, this is why. Although it didn't yield the results they were looking for, focusing their campaign resources on Facebook was probably a smart move for the BC Liberals; as compared to the likes of Instagram or Twitter, Facebook is much more popular among older, working class British Columbians that are typically more likely to vote BC Liberal.

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Graphic by Tristan Pratt

This was an election that was mostly decided on the mainland because, as this graphic shows, almost every Vancouver Island riding is now a safe seat for whoever holds it. Of the 14 winners, only Sonia Furstenau and Adam Walker would have been justified in doing some nail-biting on election night.

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Popular vote vs. seats won across BC

Percentage

of popular vote

Percentage

of seats won

0.0%

7.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

NDP

BC Liberal Party

BC Green Party

Others

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It turned out to be very good news for the NDP that the proportional representation referendum failed. Both the BC Liberals and the BC Greens will be going to a legislature where they have a smaller share of the seats than they did of the 2020 popular vote.

Graphic by Tristan Pratt

This is what a blowout election looks like in Canada. While fewer than half of all Vancouver Island voters cast their ballot for the NDP, they utterly trounced their competitors. And on Vancouver Island, at least, the BC Liberals are now definitively the third party.

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Votes-by-mail vs. votes in person

by mail*

in person

2013

6.65k

1.81m

2017

6.52k

1.98m

2020

497.9k

1.22m

\* These figures show the numbers of returned vote-by-mail packages, and not the number of packages sent out.

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It's no secret that a disproportionate amount of 2020 ballots were marked by British Columbians still wearing their pajamas, but political scientists may ponder for years afterwards what effect this had on the final results. Do voters cast their ballots differently in their living room as opposed to in a high school gymnasium?

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Voter turnout over the last three BC elections

year	Voters	As percentage of eligible voters
2013	1,813,921<br>1,813,921	57.1%<br>57.1%
2017	1,986,374<br>1,986,374	61.2%<br>61.2%
2020	1,826,061<br>1,826,061	52.4%<br>52.4%

the numbers of voters who voted in Bc Elections 2020 is adjusted

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Despite being one of the easiest elections in which to vote, this latest one actually some of the lowest turnout of recent years. That may not necessarily be a bad thing. Right now, voter turnout in the US presidential election is currently exceeding anything seen in decades; an indicator that sometimes low voter turnout is a sign of satisfaction with the status quo.

Graphic by Tristan Pratt

And here is a quick history lesson on how Vancouver Island has voted since 1996. This Island was firmly in Liberal hands in 2001, but the last 19 years have progressively seen every patch of red painted over with orange and green.